Corona Virus, Cancer & Triathlons

Reports of a new virus started up in December, 2019.  It was that time of the year, give or take a month, of when we all begin hearing of the current version of the flu.  We are reminded to get a flu shots and to wash our hands.  But this one was different.  This one was raising eyebrows and getting attention as it is spread.  The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses has it listed as the “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2”, or SARS-CoV-2.  More often it is referred to now as covid-19 or simply coronavirus.

And in the day of the 24 hour news shows, coupled with social media (which was not quite like this when the first SARS came about), there was some ebb and flow about how dangerous (or not) this is.  For awhile it would be reported more on slow news days (i.e., non-primary days) or really grab headlines.  Kind of hard not to jump on a story where a cruise ship that is bigger than many cities becomes a huge petri dish.  Scares all of us.  And I have read too much on the internet from people spinning things one way or the other, including misinformation and straw man arguments.  On one side it is Kevin Bacon yelling "“Remain calm! All is well!” while the other side are binge watching Doomsday Preppers.

Reports of the mortality rate and rate of transmission is still not clear.  It seems to have moved quickly in terms of the number of countries infected.  And though, like the "normal" flu there is a tendency for older people, or people with compromised immune systems or other health issues (hello cancer), to have higher mortality rates, the overall rate can be as high as 3.4% according to the World Health Organization.  Lower end estimates are .2%  Which is twice the rate of the standard flu.  Which is a large number of people however you look at it if the transmission is not controlled.  

It has started affecting events - including in the U.S.  An Ironman event was cancelled it Taiwan.  A half marathon in France.  A conference in Texas.  Google and Facebook have cancelled events.  It is pretty safe to assume it will affect more events going forward.  It is not an easy decision for a promoter to cancel an event for a wide range of reasons.  But if canceling events, or flights or closing Disney for a bit helps break the chain of infection, it will happen.  If I was going to guess, it will happen.  I will be watching the pattern that emerges in the next few weeks in the U.S.

Please do not get me wrong, I am not expecting the end of the world.  Will Smith will not be the only person left, running around NYC trying to deal with mutated humans.  Other things, particularly proper hand washing, can help break the chain of infection.

I am going to keep on doing what I am doing.  Training.  Planning on going to the next race.  Washing my hands.  My upcoming races and travel plans are subject to change.